Hiding in plain sight: an evolutionary approach to the South American Zika outbreak and its future consequences

Apari, PéterBajer, KatalinBrooks, Daniel RMolnár, Orsolya

Emerging Infectious Diseases (EID) pose a world-wide health and socio-economic threat. Accelerating climate change and globalization are exposing unforeseen ways that pathogens cope with their surroundings. The 2015 Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak was an example of expansion into previously inaccessible fitness spaces, causing a sudden epidemic. Recent studies indicating the subsequent decrease in symptomatic cases means the virus is in remission, currently poses little threat, and therefore can be ignored. We present an evolutionary scenario derived from the Stockholm Paradigm, of oscillating phases of expansion and isolation, accompanied by changes in transmission, persistence, virulence, and pathology. Chief among these is the likelihood that asymptomatic strains are constantly transmitted sexually. This suggests that the currently quiescent virus retains capacities to reemerge abruptly and spread rapidly in an arena of changing opportunity.(AU)

1. Zika virus
2. Stockholm Paradigm
3. Emerging Infectious Disease
4. outbreaks